Impact of Increasing Horizontal and Vertical Resolution during the HWRF Hybrid EnVar Data Assimilation on the Analysis and Prediction of Hurricane Patricia (2015)

Abstract Although numerous studies have demonstrated that increasing model spatial resolution in free forecasts can potentially improve tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasts, on the impact of during data assimilation (DA) TC prediction are lacking. In this study, using ensemble-variational DA system for Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) Model, we investigated individual first guess (FG) background ensemble (BE) initial analyses subsequent Patricia (2015). The impacts were compared between horizontal vertical resolutions also storm (TS) hurricane Patricia. results show or FG has a larger than BE improving analyzed structure stage. result is reversed TS These attributed to effectiveness intensifying vortex stage relative Increasing contributes through better-resolved correlation both stages. an overall effect analysis at their effects close Additionally, more accurately primary circulation, secondary warm-core structures via increased lead improved forecasts.